Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Beyond the noise: the questions that reveal the state of the race

The polls of the last few days reveal two key facts:

1) McCain/Palin is running strong in national polls;
2) Obama/Biden is weathering the storm in the battleground state polls.

In order to work out the state of play strategically, we need to unpack the morass of data that has led us to this point by seeking answers to the following key questions:
  • Which ticket has best captured the 'Change' mantle?
  • Who are Independent voters backing?
  • What is the current state of party ID?
  • What are the demographics of the electorate likely to be on November 4th?
  • What are the battleground states post-Convention?
I'm working on the answers to these questions and would welcome analysis, questions and comments as I do so.


John said...

I am not sure if it is a good idea to evalute the impact of the conventions based on polls which were taken at the height of the republican convention bounce. The bounce could be both short-lived and not entirely based on reality due to the artifically high respondent rate for McCain supporters and republicans. Waiting until at least this weekend would seem to be prudent. (There's a word that has gone out of fashion)

But we can probably take Alaska off the battleground states.

DCDuck said...

I am currently of the belief that the polls we're seeing now are the ceiling for the McCain campaign, and that he'll be regressing to the mean soon. I have been wrong on other presidential elections in recent memory, however, so you probably shouldn't believe anything I say.

Marcus A. Roberts said...

Nonsense DCDuck - I've never stood by your side weeping on election night after election night or my name's not Ned Lamont!

DCDuck said...

Damn lucky that I faxed you phone calls for your volunteers to make to Hawaii or else we would never have won the last election.