To repeat, I'll be exploring the likely Party ID and key demographic changes in the electorate since the 2004 Presidential election. Also included, where it exists, is the 2006 exit poll data. Taken together there is a good comparison of the high and low watermarks for both parties with regard to ID and demographic breakdowns (2004 being the GOP sweep year and 2006 being the Democrats' Congressional sweep). Lastly, I've checked this information against the latest voter registration estimates in the battleground states.
The purpose of this model is to serve as a likely prediction of what the composition of the electorate on November 4th is actually likely to be. By so doing, we create a sanity check against polls which deviate wildly from these fairly conservative estimations of party ID and demographic change. Such an undertaking is of course fraught with all the dangers of multiple changed variable predictions so let me first state clearly the assumptions for my estimations:
Assumptions
- Higher African American turnout
- Higher Hispanic turnout
- Higher youth turnout
- GOP turnout at 2004 levels (although a GOP turnout estimate from a credible source would be appreciated)
- Increased Democratic Party ID from 2004
- Decreased Republican Party ID from 2004
Party identification and polling demographics in CO, MI, MT, NV, NH, ND, OH, VA
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Colorado revealed the following demographic breakdown of the CO electorate:
Female: 56%
Male: 44%
White: 86%
African American: 4%
Hispanic: 8% (estimated 2008 increase: 10%)
Other: 3%
Ages:
Under 30: 15% (estimated 2008 increase: 17%)
31-64: 69% (estimated 2008 increase: 67%)
Over 65: 16%
Since 2000, Colorado has seen impressive increases in the Hispanic population and in the Hispanic electorate (with the Hispanic population in the GOP stronghold of Colorado Springs growing since by over 40%!).
Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 29%
Republican: 38%
Independent: 33%
No exit poll data from the 2006 elections is available.
Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 35%
Republican: 37%
Independent: 28%
With the dramatic decline in registered Republicans in Colorado and an increase in registered Democrats as well as the Denver-based Democratic National Convention, a strong narrowing of the party ID gap in Colorado can be safely predicted.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Michigan revealed the following demographic breakdown of the MI electorate:
Female: 51%
Male: 49%
White: 82%
African American: 13% (estimated 2008 increase: 14%)
Hispanic: 2%
Other: 3%
Ages:
Under 30: 21% (estimated 2008 increase: 22%)
31-64: 64% (estimated 2008 decrease: 63%)
Over 65: 15%
Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 39%
Republican: 34%
Independent: 27%
Party ID 2006:
Democratic: 40%
Republican: 33%
Independent: 27%
Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 38%
Republican: 34%
Independent: 28%
A slight decrease to Democratic ID to account for the State Democratic Party's problems of the last year.
Montana (3 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Montana revealed the following demographic breakdown of the MT electorate:
Female: 49%
Male: 51%
White: 95%
African American: 2%
Hispanic: 1%
Other: 3% (estimated 2008 increase: 4%)
Ages:
Under 30: 21% (estimated 2008 increase: 22%)
31-64: 64% (estimated 2008 decrease: 63%)
Over 65: 15%
Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 32%
Republican: 39%
Independent: 29%
Party ID 2006:
Democratic: 32%
Republican: 39%
Independent: 29%
Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 36%
Republican: 38%
Independent: 26%
Despite the popular Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer, and the Obama ground game advantage it looks like the Montana mountain may just be too steep to climb for Team Obamaafterall. This will be moved to Lean McCain in the next map update.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Nevada revealed the following demographic breakdown of the NV electorate:
Female: 52%
Male: 48%
White: 77% (estimated 2008 decrease: 74%)
African American: 7% (estimated 2008 increase: 8%)
Hispanic: 10% (estimated 2008 increase: 12%)
Other: 6%
Ages:
Under 30: 16% (estimated 2008 increase: 18%)
31-64: 67% (estimated 2008 decrease: 65%)
Over 65: 17%
The Hispanic increase is easily justified by the Census-reported increase in the Hispanic population.
Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 35%
Republican: 39%
Independent: 26%
Party ID 2006:
Democratic: 33%
Republican: 40%
Independent: 27%
Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 39%
Republican: 36%
Independent: 25%
The party ID change is easily justified by the extraordinary transformation in the Nevada registered voter situation with Democrats moving from a 2004 position of 430k registered Dems set against 434k registered Republicans to a commanding 2008 position of 566k registered Dems to 490k registered Republicans.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for New Hampshire revealed the following demographic breakdown of the NH electorate:
Female: 49% (estimated 2008 increase: 50%)
Male: 51% (estimated 2008 decrease: 50%)
White: 95%
African American: 1%
Hispanic: 1%
Other: 2%
Ages:
Under 30: 16% (estimated 2008 increase: 17%)
31-64: 73% (estimated 2008 decrease: 70%)
Over 65: 11% (estimated 2008 increase: 13%)
While youth increases to the benefit of Obama, I predict older voter turnout will also increase to the benefit of McCain.
Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 25%
Republican: 32%
Independent: 44%
No exit poll data for 2006 is available.
Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 29%
Republican: 31%
Independent: 40%
Again, the dramatic increase in registered Democrats assures a strong narrowing of the GOP ID advantage. In sum, McCain can play at competeing in his beloved NH all he wants, the voters just aren't there for him anymore.
North Dakota (3 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for North Dakota revealed the following demographic breakdown of the ND electorate:
Female: 51%
Male: 49%
White: 98%
African American: 0%
Hispanic: 1%
Other: 1%
Ages:
Under 30: 20%
31-64: 65%
Over 65: 15%
Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 27%
Republican: 41%
Independent: 32%
Party ID 2006:
Democratic: 29%
Republican: 38%
Independent: 33%
Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 32%
Republican: 38%
Independent: 30%
Despite Team Obama's hopes and dreams of flipping ND off the back of their strong primary season performance it looks like North Dakota like its neighbour is also too steep a climb. This will be moved to Lean McCain in the next map update.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Ohio revealed the following demographic breakdown of the OH electorate:
Female: 53%
Male: 47%
White: 86% (estimated 2008 decrease: 84%)
African American: 10% (estimated 2008 increase: 12%)
Hispanic: 3%
Other: 2%
Ages:
Under 30: 21%
31-64: 67%
Over 65: 12%
Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 35%
Republican: 40%
Independent: 25%
Party ID 2006:
Democratic: 40%
Republican: 37%
Independent: 23%
Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 41%
Republican: 35%
Independent: 24%
The host of recent Ohio polling seems to confirm that self-identifying Democrats are willing to break with party and vote for McCain in sizable numbers. As such, the crucial number in the Buckeye state will not be the party ID divide but rather the party loyalty number (namely that percentage of declared Dems who wil actually vote for the Democratic Candidate).
I'll be exploring my old battleground turf of Ohio in great detail in subsequent postings.
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Virginia revealed the following demographic breakdown of the VA electorate:
Female: 54%
Male: 46%
White: 72% (estimated 2008 decrease: 71%)
African American: 21% (estimated 2008 increase: 22%)
Hispanic: 3%
Other: 4%
Ages:
Under 30: 17% (estimated 2008 increase: 18%)
31-64: 73% (estimated 2008 increase: 72%)
Over 65: 10%
Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 39%
Republican: 35%
Independent: 26%
Party ID 2006:
Democratic: 36%
Republican: 39%
Independent: 26%
Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 38%
Republican: 37%
Independent: 25%
The latest Survey USA crosstabs (the gold standard of VA polling) reveal just how fertile the ground of the Old Dominion is for Team Obama: their model is more male, more white and older then my projection and yet they still have Obama wining the state by 4%. On the downside, their poll is overly generous to Obama in terms of party ID and GOP defectors. The Field offers good commentary on the unfolding VA adventure story.
Ultimately, the trench warfare of the ground game will be determinative and that's why with 28 field offices to McCain's 6 I predict, VA to be advantage Obama.
Conclusion: Between the scale of Obama's ground game in these states, the positive shifts in party ID even under conservative projections and the conservative demographic increases for youth and minority turnout, I estimate the following breakdown of states:
Obama: CO, MI, NV, NH, VA
McCain: MT, ND
Total coin toss: OH
Next up, the Lean McCain states.
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