Party ID and demographics on Nov 4: a battleground states tour (FL, GA, IN, MO, NC, SD)

Continuing with our tour of the party ID and likely demographic composition of the electorates in the battleground states come November 4 our attention now turns to those states that at the start of last week I classed as Lean McCain: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and South Dakota.

To repeat, I'll be exploring the likely Party ID and key demographic changes in the electorate since the 2004 Presidential election. Also included, where it exists, is the 2006 exit poll data. Taken together there is a good comparison of the high and low watermarks for both parties with regard to ID and demographic breakdowns (2004 being the GOP sweep year and 2006 being the Democrats' Congressional sweep). Lastly, I've checked this information against the latest voter registration estimates in the battleground states.

The purpose of this model is to serve as a likely prediction of what the composition of the electorate on November 4th is actually likely to be. By so doing, we create a sanity check against polls which deviate wildly from these fairly conservative estimations of party ID and demographic change. Such an undertaking is of course fraught with all the dangers of multiple changed variable predictions so let me first state clearly the assumptions for my estimations:

Assumptions

• Higher African American turnout
• Higher Hispanic turnout
• Higher youth turnout
• GOP turnout at 2004 levels (although a GOP turnout estimate from a credible source would be appreciated)
• Increased Democratic Party ID from 2004
• Decreased Republican Party ID from 2004

Thus below I offer both the actual numbers for party ID and for internal polling demographics as recorded by the multi-network/newsagency exit polls of 2004 and 2006 respectively.

Party identification and polling demographics in FL, GA, IN, MO, NC and SD

Florida (27 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Florida revealed the following demographic breakdown of the FL electorate:

Female: 54%
Male: 46%
White: 70% (estimated 2008 decrease: 68%)
African American: 12% (estimated 2008 increase: 14%)
Hispanic: 15%
Other: 3%
Ages:
Under 17%
31-64: 64% (estimated 2008 decrease: 63%)
Over 65: 19%

Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 37%
Republican: 41%
Independent: 23%

Party ID 2006:
Democratic: 36%
Republican: 39%
Independent: 25%

Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 41%
Republican: 39%
Independent: 20%

Like Ohio, the greatest challenge Obama faces is retaining Democratic loyalty. This, and McCain's staunch support from popular FL Governor Charlie Crist, will probably combine to keep the Sunshine state out of reach for Team Obama - although we'll be watching carefully for the Biden/Palin here.

Georgia (15 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Georgia revealed the following demographic breakdown of the GA electorate:

Female: 56%
Male: 44%
White: 70%
African American: 25% (estimated 2008 increase: 28%)
Hispanic: 4%
Other: 2%
Ages:
Under 30: 19% (estimated 2008 increase: 21%)
31-64: 73% (estimated 2008 decrease: 70%)
Over 65: 8% (estimated 2008 increase: 9%)

Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 34%
Republican: 42%
Independent: 24%

No 2006 exit poll data is available.

Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 37%
Republican: 39%
Independent: 24%

As pollster Charles Bullock summarises: "For Obama to carry Georgia in November, multiple factors must come together. He will need to mobilize unprecedented levels of turnout among African Americans and young whites and hope that Bob Barr eats into John McCain’s support."

With the news that Obama has stopped advertising in Georgia and is withdrawing some ground staff it looks like Team Obama doesn't think the factors will indeed come together.

Indiana (11 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Indiana revealed the following demographic breakdown of the IN electorate:

Female: 52%
Male: 48%
White: 89% (estimated 2008 decrease: 86%)
African American: 7% (estimated 2008 increase: 9%)
Hispanic: 3%
Other: 2%
Ages:
Under 30: 14% (estimated 2008 increase: 17%)
31-64: 74% (estimated 2008 decrease: 71%)
Over 65: 12%

Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 32%
Republican: 46%
Independent: 22%

No 2006 exit poll data is available.

Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 36%
Republican: 43%
Independent: 21%

As 538 notes, Indiana remains "a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency state" for Obama, "if it becomes a must-win, we are talking about a scenario where a candidate is facing third-and-long: not an uncovertable position by any means, but also not the one they'd prefer to be battling from."

That said, polls are still surprisingly close and it is interesting that Obama now has at least 26 field offices to McCain's zero. IN could yet be the big surprise of the election.

Missouri (11 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for Missouri revealed the following demographic breakdown of the MO electorate:

Female: 53%
Male: 47%
White: 89% (estimated 2008 decrease: 88%)
African American: 8% (estimated 2008 increase: 10%)
Hispanic: 1%
Other: 1%
Ages:
Under 30: 20%
31-64: 69% (estimated 2008 decrease: 63%)
Over 65: 11%

Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 35%
Republican: 36%
Independent: 29%

Party ID 2006:
Democratic: 37%
Republican: 39%
Independent: 29%

Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 36%
Republican: 36%
Independent: 28%

Missouri is probably much the same as Indiana, "a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency state", but is probably a lower chance for Obama then IN if polls are to be believed.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for North Carolina was widely considered to be seriously flawed. Given that caveat, the following demographic breakdown of a 2008 estimate of the NC electorate is offered based on polling and demographic data:

Female: 54%
Male: 46%
White: 76%
African American: 21%
Hispanic: 2%
Other: 1%
Ages:
Under 30: 18%
31-64: 72%
Over 65: 10%

The 2004 exit poll data is too flawed to be used.

No 2006 exit poll data is available.

Party ID 2008 estimate (based on polling):
Democratic: 42%
Republican: 32%
Independent: 26%

NC has been the hidden ambition of Team Obama throughout the campaign. With a sizable African American population and positive broader demographic changes the state seems tailor-made for the Obama expand-the-map strategy. This is the one Lean McCain state that may yet shift to toss-up.

South Dakota (3 electoral votes)
The 2004 network exit poll for South Dakota revealed the following demographic breakdown of the SD electorate:

Female: 50%
Male: 50%
White: 95%
African American: 1% (estimated 2008 increase: 14%)
Hispanic: 0%
Other: 4%
Ages:
Under 30: 19%
31-64: 64% (estimated 2008 decrease: 63%)
Over 65: 17%

Party ID 2004:
Democratic: 32%
Republican: 47%
Independent: 21%

No 2006 exit poll data is available.

Party ID 2008 estimate:
Democratic: 35%
Republican: 45%
Independent: 20%

Alas, in the face of demographic and party ID analysis I must yield to the unlikelihood that SD is actually Lean McCain. I shall change this accordingly in my next battleground states update.

Conclusion: Between the likely demographics, the estimated party ID and the recent polling, I estimate the following breakdown of states:
Lean McCain: FL, IN, MO, NC
Likely McCain: GA, SD

I hope that this crystal ball gazing is of some utility to readers, particularly the next time some daft NC poll emerges showing a 10% African American composition or some such. All of these estimates will be under review throughout the remaining weeks so please offer comments and criticism as you see fit. Many thanks.