As both John and dcduck note, we are likely looking at an aberration in terms of polling data whilst the post-Convention bounce settles down. As such, we'll review the key framing questions again come the weekend but in the meantime, here's the in-bounce snapshot:
Q. Which ticket has best captured the 'Change' mantle?
A. Per the much vaaunted NBC/WSJ poll, Obama/Biden hold a 52% "very or fairly likely to bring real change" advantage over McCain/Palin's 35%.
Q. Who are Independent voters backing?
A. Per Gallup Tracking, Independents have radically changed direction from 40% McCain/Palin support pre-Convention to 52% post-Convention. Before I publicly surrender my previously stated position on this issue, I'll hold out for the post-high water mark results.
Q. What is the current state of party ID?
A. 538s wisdom is compelling: "the true party ID composition of the electorate is difficult and perhaps impossible to ascertain. You can take a survey of party ID, but it is still a survey, and therefore itself may be subject to issues like poor methodology and response bias." Thankfully, all is not lost as there is some real numbers to look at too, namely the national party registration comparison of roughly 42mn registered Democrats versus roughly 31mn registered Republicans. In due course, I'll be offering analysis of the party ID question on a battleground state basis.
Q. What are the demographics of the electorate likely to be on November 4th?
A. The Obama team will likely succeed in their intention to expand African American, Hispanic and youth turnout whilst the selection of Governor Palin has excited the conservative base of the GOP. I'll also be seeking to crack this question on a battleground state basis soon.
Q. What are the battleground states post-Convention?
A. Let's break them down in accordance with the greats of the business first before offering my own t'pence:
Per 538, great polling breakdown of their chosen OH, MI, PA, VA, FL and CO.
Per Ambinder:
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN (17 electoral votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI, PA (131 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, SD (58 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)
Per First Read:
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, PA (38 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI (110 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, SD (64 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
MAR:
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA, IL, ME, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (207 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: WI, NM, NE-cd2(1ev), PA (37 votes)
Toss-up: CO, MI, MT, NV, NH, ND, OH, VA (74 votes)
Lean McCain: FL, GA, IN, MO, NC, SD (82 votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (4evs), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (138 votes)
In sum, I think that even at the height of the McCain/Palin bounce, Team Obama is well positioned in the battlegrounds needing just 26 electoral votes from the 74 toss-up states to win. I expect that post-Palin bounce I'll be moving MI into the Lean Obama column, leaving the Democrats just 9 EVs short of the magic number 270 with a remaining pool of 57 EVs still in the toss-up catagory.
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