Monday, October 6, 2008

McCain's only hope: Pennsylvania.

Look, Frank offers a reasoned, sensible judgement of the uses and misuses of candidate time and yet McCain/Palin continue to screw up.  So, here's a simple overview, one so simple I hope that even Steve Schmidt might be able to grasp:
  • Yesterday Governor Palin was in Omaha to defend 1 (one) electoral vote.
  • Today McCain is in New Mexico to defend 5 EVs (he is down 6.2% here)
  • A week ago McCain was in Iowa to defend 7 EVs (he is down 10.7% here)
  • This week, Senator Obama will be attacking North Carolina (15 EVs) and Indiana (11 EVs).
To quote Frederick the Great, yet again: "In trying to defend everything, he defended nothing"

McCain cannot hope to win 270+ electoral votes by holding all 286 Bush '04 EVs. He will lose Iowa and New Mexico and cannot hope to win all of the following: FL, OH, NC, VA, IN, CO and NV.  

So, McCain must attack.

He needs to flip a big prize and with the news that he is out of Michigan all that remains is Pennsylvania. He should camp out in the Philly and Pittsburg suburbs whilst Governor Palin lives in the T-Section and declares herself a Scranton native. Fiddling around at the edges with the 1 EV pick ups of Maine and Omaha is something McCain/Palin have neither the time nor the money to do.

If he can flip PA he has a fighting chance of reaching 270+. He could then afford to lose CO + IN, CO + NV or even OH + NV. But he cannot afford to lose CO + OH, OH + NC, OH + VA, VA +NC. And he cannot afford to lose FL full stop.

So, Steve listen carefully: Defend FL, OH, NC, VA, IN and NV only. Expect to lose one of them (other then FL). Cede NM and IA. Attack PA only. Comprende? I doubt it.

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