Friday, October 17, 2008

The battleground map (15 Oct. 2008)

"Wherever this race is on October 15th is where this race is going to be" - Chuck Todd, Sept. 9, 2008
(Re-posted after earlier technical problems. Apologies.)

The polls continue to show Obama dominating, and even Pat Buchanan is succumbing to the power of Obama's early voting advantage. Ambinder and First Read are in broad agreement, the only difference being the status of NE-cd2 and Indiana. On Politik however thinks things have progressed beyond mere near advantage, particularly as Obama moves field staff from Michigan to Indiana and North Carolina...

And so here are the maps:


Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH (67 electoral votes)

Toss-ups: FL, OH, NE-2, NV, CO, VA, NC, MO (101 electoral votes)

Lean McCain: GA, IN, MT, SD, WV (36) electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY, ND (137) electoral votes)


Obama likely + leaners: 264 electoral votes

McCain likely + leaners: 173 electoral votes

Tossups: 101 electoral votes


First Read
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes) Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)

Lean McCain: MT, WV (8 votes)

Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (155 votes)
Obama likely + leaners: 264 electoral votes
McCain likely + leaners: 163 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 111 electoral votes


On Politik
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA, IL, ME (3 EVs), MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI (244 EVs)
Lean Obama: CO, FL, MN, ME-cd2 (1ev), NH, NM, VA (69 EVs)
Toss-up: IN, NC, NV, NE-cd2 (1ev), MO, OH (63 EVs)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, WV, ND (26 EVs)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE(4EVS), OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (136 EVs)


Obama likely + leaners: 313 electoral votes
McCain likely + leaners: 162 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 63 electoral votes


State by state

1 comment:

DCDuck said...

I'd actually swap North Dakota and the NE CD-02 in your rankings. ND appears to be tied, and there's nothing to suggest that the Nebraska district is going to go our way. Even though I really know you want it to.