The battleground map (15 Oct. 2008)

"Wherever this race is on October 15th is where this race is going to be" - Chuck Todd, Sept. 9, 2008
(Re-posted after earlier technical problems. Apologies.)

The polls continue to show Obama dominating, and even Pat Buchanan is succumbing to the power of Obama's early voting advantage. Ambinder and First Read are in broad agreement, the only difference being the status of NE-cd2 and Indiana. On Politik however thinks things have progressed beyond mere near advantage, particularly as Obama moves field staff from Michigan to Indiana and North Carolina...

And so here are the maps:

Marc Ambinder

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH (67 electoral votes)

Toss-ups: FL, OH, NE-2, NV, CO, VA, NC, MO (101 electoral votes)

Lean McCain: GA, IN, MT, SD, WV (36) electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY, ND (137) electoral votes)

Obama likely + leaners: 264 electoral votes

McCain likely + leaners: 173 electoral votes

Tossups: 101 electoral votes

First Read
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes) Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)

Lean McCain: MT, WV (8 votes)

Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (155 votes)
Obama likely + leaners: 264 electoral votes
McCain likely + leaners: 163 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 111 electoral votes

On Politik
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA, IL, ME (3 EVs), MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI (244 EVs)
Lean Obama: CO, FL, MN, ME-cd2 (1ev), NH, NM, VA (69 EVs)
Toss-up: IN, NC, NV, NE-cd2 (1ev), MO, OH (63 EVs)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, WV, ND (26 EVs)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE(4EVS), OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (136 EVs)

Obama likely + leaners: 313 electoral votes
McCain likely + leaners: 162 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 63 electoral votes

State by state

• Maine (which, like Nebraska splits its EVs) is divided into Likely Obama (3 EVs) and Lean Obama (1 EV in ME-cd2) as we await sufficient polling on the state of the race there (although the RNC going dark indicates that ME-cd2 may move to Likely Obama next week).


• Nebraska CD2 continues to be a Toss-up (also in need of further polling).


• PA moves from Lean Obama to Likely Obama as Obama opens up staggering poll leads. With this move, McCain's only hope of achieving the positive object is ended.


• MI moves from Lean Obama to Likely Obama, as McCain's withdrawal and Obama's 10%+ poll lead means Team Obama is confident enough to move staff to offensive battlegrounds like Indiana and North Carolina.


• WI moves from Lean Obama to Likely Obama as Obama's polls hold up despite multiple McCain/Palin visits and as the RNC goes dark in the state.


• MN remains Lean Obama for now but teeters on the edge of moving into his Likely column.


• MO remains a Toss-up state.


• NH remains a Lean Obama state but may move to Likely Obama next week.


• WV moves from Likely McCain to Lean McCain as polls show Obama closing in the heart of Appalachia.


• North Dakota moves from Likely McCain back into the Lean McCain column as polls show Obama surprisingly close.


• GA completes the weakening of McCain's position as it moves to Lean McCain based both on polls, sensational African American turnout (plus beautiful stories like this) and the fact that if NM and MN are classed as Lean Obama, then GA by contrast should be Lean McCain!


• VA achieves it's destiny and joins the Obama column in the Lean category.


• CO joins VA in moving from Toss-up to Lean Obama.


• Last week we said we would only move FL if Obama's numbers held up. Well they actually got even better. Add this to Charlie Crist bailing on McCain and Team Obama's $39mn FL budget and FL moves from Toss-up to Lean Obama and with it, McCain's possession of the negative object is ended. Game over.