Friday, October 17, 2008

The battleground map (15 Oct. 2008)

"Wherever this race is on October 15th is where this race is going to be" - Chuck Todd, Sept. 9, 2008
(Re-posted after earlier technical problems. Apologies.)

The polls continue to show Obama dominating, and even Pat Buchanan is succumbing to the power of Obama's early voting advantage. Ambinder and First Read are in broad agreement, the only difference being the status of NE-cd2 and Indiana. On Politik however thinks things have progressed beyond mere near advantage, particularly as Obama moves field staff from Michigan to Indiana and North Carolina...

And so here are the maps:


Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH (67 electoral votes)

Toss-ups: FL, OH, NE-2, NV, CO, VA, NC, MO (101 electoral votes)

Lean McCain: GA, IN, MT, SD, WV (36) electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY, ND (137) electoral votes)


Obama likely + leaners: 264 electoral votes

McCain likely + leaners: 173 electoral votes

Tossups: 101 electoral votes


First Read
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes) Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)

Lean McCain: MT, WV (8 votes)

Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (155 votes)
Obama likely + leaners: 264 electoral votes
McCain likely + leaners: 163 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 111 electoral votes


On Politik
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA, IL, ME (3 EVs), MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI (244 EVs)
Lean Obama: CO, FL, MN, ME-cd2 (1ev), NH, NM, VA (69 EVs)
Toss-up: IN, NC, NV, NE-cd2 (1ev), MO, OH (63 EVs)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, WV, ND (26 EVs)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE(4EVS), OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (136 EVs)


Obama likely + leaners: 313 electoral votes
McCain likely + leaners: 162 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 63 electoral votes


State by state

2 comments:

DCDuck said...

I'd actually swap North Dakota and the NE CD-02 in your rankings. ND appears to be tied, and there's nothing to suggest that the Nebraska district is going to go our way. Even though I really know you want it to.

S said...

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan