The Battleground Map (2 Oct. 2008)

Likely Obama victory, possible Obama landslideSketching an electoral map during this polling period is as harsh to John McCain as harsh can be. Nevertheless, given that absentee voting is now underway across the country (and early voting is underway in Ohio, Florida and Colorado), and that voters' opinions are hardening this map has real electoral significance.

Thus I suppose, the following maps are harsh, but fair.

First Read

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NJ, NM OR, WA (55 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (152 votes)
Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)

Obama: likely + leaners = 212 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 174 electoral votes
Tossups: 152 electoral votes

Marc Ambinder

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM (22 electoral votes)
Marginal toss-ups: FL, MI, NH, WI, PA, OH (99 electoral votes)
True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA, NC (42 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, SD (43 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 212 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 185 electoral votes
Tossups: 141 electoral votes

On Politik
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA, IL, ME, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (207 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: WI, MI, NM, PA (53 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MT, NC, NV, NE-cd2 (1ev), NH, OH, VA (105 votes)
Lean McCain: MT, MO (14 votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE (4evs), OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (159 votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 260 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 173 electoral votes
Tossups: 105 electoral votes

State-by-state:

• VA remains a Toss-up but is heading towards Lean Obama.
  
• MI remains Lean Obama. Soon McCain should choose between MI and PA - I don't think he afford in terms of time and money to continue to pursue both.
  
• PA remains Lean Obama.
• In McCain's sole piece of good news MT moves from Toss-up to Lean McCain.
• NE-cd2 remains a Toss-Up as we await the much rumoured (but does it actually exist?) Research 2000/Daily Kos poll.
• NH is still a Toss-up - although more polling is desperatly needed here, especially for judging the merits of an Obama 269-win-the-tie strategy.
  
• IN moves to Toss-up on the basis of a remarkable consensus amongst pollsters for this once reliable Republican red state. The sound you hear is Steve Schmidt raging .
• FL moves to Toss-up as the background sound changes to weeping.
• MO remains a Lean McCain amidst fears that it could become a Toss-up.
  
• NC moves to Toss-up as the combination of Obama's record breaking voter registration drive and Palin's tanking polls put the state near the top tier now of Obama's potential paths to victory.