Thursday, October 2, 2008

The Battleground Map (2 Oct. 2008)

Likely Obama victory, possible Obama landslideSketching an electoral map during this polling period is as harsh to John McCain as harsh can be. Nevertheless, given that absentee voting is now underway across the country (and early voting is underway in Ohio, Florida and Colorado), and that voters' opinions are hardening this map has real electoral significance.

Thus I suppose, the following maps are harsh, but fair.

First Read

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NJ, NM OR, WA (55 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (152 votes)
Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 votes)

Obama: likely + leaners = 212 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 174 electoral votes
Tossups: 152 electoral votes


Marc Ambinder

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM (22 electoral votes)
Marginal toss-ups: FL, MI, NH, WI, PA, OH (99 electoral votes)
True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA, NC (42 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, SD (43 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 212 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 185 electoral votes
Tossups: 141 electoral votes


On Politik
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA, IL, ME, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (207 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: WI, MI, NM, PA (53 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MT, NC, NV, NE-cd2 (1ev), NH, OH, VA (105 votes)
Lean McCain: MT, MO (14 votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE (4evs), OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (159 votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 260 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 173 electoral votes
Tossups: 105 electoral votes


State-by-state:

1 comment:

DCDuck said...

Looks like McCain has pulled out of Michigan. As predicted . . .