Thursday, October 23, 2008

The battleground map (23 October, 2008)

Obama landslide probable

The map tells the story. Even if McCain were to somehow miraculously flip PA he'd still have to run the table on all our current Toss-up states to win - the equivalent of flipping the coin 6 times and calling it correctly on each occasion (which John informs me is a 1 in 64 chance or 1.5625%). Good luck Senator.

Onto the maps! 

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes) 
Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH, CO, VA  (89) electoral votes) 
Toss-ups: FL, OH, NV, NC, MO, IN (89) electoral votes) 
Lean McCain: GA, MT, ND, WV, NE-2  (26) electoral votes) 
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, SD, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY, ND (137) electoral votes) 

Obama likely + leaners: 286  electoral votes 
McCain likely + leaners: 163  electoral votes 
Tossups: 89 electoral votes

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, NE 02, ND, SD, WV (30 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

Obama likely + leaners: 264  electoral votes 
McCain likely + leaners: 163  electoral votes 
Tossups: 111 electoral votes

On Politik
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA, IL, ME (all 4 EVs), MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI (255 EVs)
Lean Obama: CO, NH, NM, VA (31 EVs)
Toss-up: FL, IN, NC, NV, NE-cd2 (1ev), MO, OH (90 EVs)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, WV, ND (26 EVs)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE(4EVS), OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (136 EVs)

Obama likely + leaners: 286 electoral votes
McCain likely + leaners: 162 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 90 electoral votes

State by state
  • Florida returns to Toss-up after it's brief flirtation as a Lean Obama state as the polls tighten in the Sunshine state. 
  • Montana remains a Lean McCain state but will move to Toss-up as and when mainstream polling shows the race to be neck and neck.
  • North Dakota remains a Lean McCain state and will move per the same basis as Montana. 
  • Nebraska 2 remains a Toss-up. We may be lacking proper polling but if Obama is running so strongly in the Dakotas and even in Kansas then his NE-2 operation should be within a coin flip of victory.
  • Maine-2 moves back to Likely Obama as McCain winds down in Maine.
  • Minnesota moves to Likely Obama as he opens up a clear poll lead and McCain's ad spending dries up.
  • Pennsylvania may be McCain's only path to 270 but the polls and incidentals don't show him breaking through. He needs to be in single figures at least in the average to bring it back to Lean Obama and thus have a shot.

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