Tuesday, October 7, 2008

The Battleground Map (7 Oct. 2008)

Obama landslide now probable
The polls concur that Obama is dominating in battleground states during the vital early voting window allowing him to expand the map even as he secures his hold on critical blue states like Pennsylvania. Obama continues to add further routes to victory, whilst McCain's paths diminish almost by the day.

Whilst it is important to note that these characterisations are of the race at present rather then as it may be on Nov. 4, the following maps do demonstrate the near Everest McCain must climb.


Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI (42 electoral votes)
Marginal toss-ups: FL, NH, WI, PA, OH, NE 2 (73 electoral votes)
True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA, NC (42 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, SD (43 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE 1, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (141 electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 239 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners: 184 electoral votes
Tossups: 115 electoral votes

First Read

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 EVs)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, PA, WA, WI (107 EVs)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, NV, NC, OH, VA (100 EVs)
Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 EVs)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 EVs)

Obama: likely + leaners: 239 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners: 184 electoral votes
Tossups: 115 electoral votes

On Politik
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA, IL, ME (3 EVs), MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (196 EVs)
Lean Obama: WI, MI, MN, ME-cd2 (1ev), NH, NM, PA (68 EVs)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, NC, NV, NE-cd2 (1ev), MO, OH, VA (112 EVs)
Lean McCain: MT (3 Evs)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE(4EVS), OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (159 EVs)

Obama: likely + leaners: 264 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners: 162 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 112 electoral votes

State by state:

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