The polls concur that Obama is dominating in battleground states during the vital early voting window allowing him to expand the map even as he secures his hold on critical blue states like Pennsylvania. Obama continues to add further routes to victory, whilst McCain's paths diminish almost by the day.
Whilst it is important to note that these characterisations are of the race at present rather then as it may be on Nov. 4, the following maps do demonstrate the near Everest McCain must climb.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI (42 electoral votes)Marginal toss-ups: FL, NH, WI, PA, OH, NE 2 (73 electoral votes)
True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA, NC (42 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, SD (43 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE 1, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (141 electoral votes)
Obama: likely + leaners: 239 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners: 184 electoral votes
Tossups: 115 electoral votes
First Read
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (157 EVs)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, PA, WA, WI (107 EVs)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, NV, NC, OH, VA (100 EVs)
Lean McCain: MO, MT (14 EVs)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (160 EVs)
Obama: likely + leaners: 239 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners: 184 electoral votes
Tossups: 115 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners: 184 electoral votes
Tossups: 115 electoral votes
On Politik
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA, IL, ME (3 EVs), MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (196 EVs)
Lean Obama: WI, MI, MN, ME-cd2 (1ev), NH, NM, PA (68 EVs)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, NC, NV, NE-cd2 (1ev), MO, OH, VA (112 EVs)
Lean McCain: MT (3 Evs)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE(4EVS), OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (159 EVs)
Obama: likely + leaners: 264 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners: 162 electoral votes
Toss-ups: 112 electoral votes
State by state:
- Maine (which, like Nebraska splits its EVs) is now divided into Likely Obama (3 EVs) and Lean Obama (1 EV) as the McCain campaign launches a real effort in ME-cd2
- Nebraska CD2 is now a true honest-to-god Toss-up on the basis of: Palin's visit + Ambinder's map + 538's assessment
- PA remains Lean Obama (although polling + amazing final PA registrant numbers might even see it end up as Likely Obama before Nov 4)
- MI remains Lean Obama as we await more post-McCain withdrawal polling
- MN moves from Likely Obama to Lean Obama as McCain seems to close amidst somewhat erratic polling in the state
- MO shifts from McCain to join the toss-up states on the basis of polling and the total mismatch of the Obama/McCain field operations
- NH moves to Lean Obama as polling shows Obama breaking away
- VA remains a Toss-up but teeters on the brink of becoming Lean Obama
- Recent poll numbers in FL have been so good for Obama that even Pollster has moved it to Lean Obama. We'll be a wee bit more cautious and give the numbers a week to see if they hold up.
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