Monday, October 20, 2008


Obama raises $150mn. Colin Powell endorses. The DSCC reaches for 60 Senate seats. West Virginia, North Dakota and Georgia are in play. McCain's path to 270 is near non-existent.

Belatedly, the McCain campaign will embrace an all out attack on Pennsylvania (at the likely cost of Colorado!) creating an electoral map (and math) that is even more improbable then Gore's Florida-only path, or Kerry's Ohio-only path. In fact, it may just be simpler in future elections to ask 'who has the more realistic paths to 270?' and declare them the winner (as glimpsed here 10 weeks ago).

Meanwhile, the media has already begun discussing everything from the Obama cabinet to his first hundred days.

So whilst the grand strategic narrative seems set, there are still some points of real interest in the last days of the campaign such as: the prospective end of the Nixon/Reagan/Bush GOP, the Revolution in Political Affairs that is the Obama ground game, the ultimate manipulation of the angles of approach (message, ground game, candidate) to smash the enemy's centre of gravity, as well as the serious foriegn and domestic policy challenges that President Obama awaits. On Politik will, naturally, be exploring these.

(And this doesn't even include the more meanspirited, if enjoyable, musings of John who wants to consider: why Palin not Ridge? Why couldn't the McCain campaign keep a consistent message for just a day or two? And, of course, our all-time favourite: "I'm afraid Senator Obama doesn't understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy." Bliss.).

So, even though we know the end of the game, we hope you'll stick with it 'til it's game over.

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